Design and Implementation of an LLM-Based Maritime Risk Scenario Generation System for Vessel Traffic Services

Taekhyun Park1, Sangmin Jo2,, Hyerim Bae2† and Dohee Kim3†
1Department of Data Science, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea,
2Department of Industrial Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea,
3 Department of of AI Convergence Engineering, Changwon National University, Changwon, South Korea
Corresponding author

Abstract

Maritime accident prevention requires timely, interpretable risk assessment that can support operational decision-making in Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) environments. This paper proposes an integrated framework that combines Large Language Models (LLMs) with machine-learning-based risk inference to unify accident risk probability estimation and dynamic scenario generation. Heterogeneous data sources—Automatic Identification System (AIS) trajectories, meteoro-logical observations, historical accident statistics, and tribunal adjudication reports—are standardized through a two-pass LLM pipeline and aligned on a uniform spatial grid. A gradient- boosting classifier with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) based explainability identifies key risk drivers, and isotonic regression calibration produces well-calibrated, continuous risk scores. For scenario generation, a HyperGraph-based retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) knowledge base encodes multi-way relationships among accident cases, causal factors, and maritime regulations; retrieved evidence is combined with calibrated risk scores in few-shot, Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompts to generate interpretable accident scenarios with a cause–progression–outcome structure. A web-based dashboard with on-device text-to-speech delivers grid-level risk visualization, narrative risk scenarios, and actionable navigational advisories within a unified prediction–explanation–response interface for maritime safety management.

Framework

Framework Overview

Figure 1: Overall framework of the LLM-based maritime risk scenario generation system.

HyperGraph-Based RAG UI

HyperGraph UI Explanation

Figure 2: HyperGraph-based retrieval-augmented generation UI explanation.

Demo Videos

Video 1: VTS (Vessel Traffic Service) system demonstration.

Video 2: Route visualization demonstration.


Citation

@misc{park2026design,
  title={Design and Implementation of an LLM-Based Maritime Risk Scenario Generation System for Vessel Traffic Services},
  author={Park, Taekhyun and Jo, Sangmin and Bae, Hyerim and Kim, Dohee},
  journal={IEEE CASE Submission},
  year={2026}
}